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Arcadia

NSW 2159LGA: Hornsby Shire

Investment Score

72

/100

AI Intelligence Summary

Arcadia NSW 2159 is a prestigious semi-rural suburb in Sydney's Hills District, located 40km northwest of the CBD. With a population of 1,850 and median house prices of $2.15 million, it attracts affluent families seeking an equestrian lifestyle on large acreage properties. The suburb is characterized by its rural character, with 92% separate houses on blocks averaging 4,500sqm, many featuring horse facilities and extensive gardens. Residents enjoy excellent safety ratings (9/10), quality schools including nearby Galston High School, and close proximity to natural bushland and Fagan Park. The demographic profile shows high-income professionals (median $145,000 annually) with 68% family households and strong community networks. However, the suburb faces challenges with limited public transport (3/100 transport score), requiring car dependency for most activities. Investment fundamentals remain strong with 8.5% annual house price growth, low vacancy rates (1.8%), and limited housing stock creating competitive market conditions. The area offers exceptional lifestyle benefits for those prioritizing space, privacy, and rural amenities within commuting distance of Sydney.

Strengths

  • Premium acreage properties with median land size of 4,500sqm offering rural lifestyle
  • Excellent safety ratings (9/10) and low crime index (15/100)
  • Strong property market fundamentals with 8.5% annual growth and low vacancy (1.8%)
  • High-income demographic with median household income of $145,000

Opportunities

  • Growing demand for lifestyle properties post-COVID driving premium pricing
  • Potential for property subdivision on larger blocks subject to council approval
  • Development of equestrian facilities and agritourism ventures
  • NBN infrastructure enabling more remote work opportunities

Considerations

  • Very limited public transport options (3/100 score) requiring car dependency
  • Minimal local shopping and dining requiring travel to Hornsby or Castle Hill
  • High property prices limiting affordability for many buyers
  • Bushfire risk due to rural location and natural bushland proximity

Property Market

Median House

$2.15M

+8.5% 1yr

Median Unit

$850K

+6.2% 1yr

Median Townhouse

$1.65M

Rent (House)

$1,150/wk

Rent (Unit)

$680/wk

Days on Market

35

Vacancy Rate

1.8%

Auction Clearance

78.0%

Price Growth

Type1 Year3 Year5 Year
House+8.5%+22.0%+45.0%
Unit+6.2%+18.0%+38.0%

Rental Yields

House Yield

2.8%

Unit Yield

4.2%

Townhouse Yield

3.5%

Investment Scorecard

Overall Investment Score72/100
Growth Potential75/100
Cashflow Score58/100
Risk Score (lower = safer)65/100
Affordability Index45/100

Demand/Supply Ratio: 2.20

Demand exceeds supply — favourable for sellers

Tax & Financial Intelligence

CPA-grade analysis for Arcadia at median house price

Standard transfer
$100,640
First Home Buyer
$100,640
Foreign buyer surcharge
$172,000

+8% surcharge

Annual rent income
$59,800

$1150/wk

Interest (80% LVR @ 6.5%)
-$111,800
Other expenses (~2.5%)
-$53,750
Net rental position
-$105,750

Negatively geared

Tax benefit (39% MTR)
+$41,243

Reduces taxable income

After-tax holding cost
$64,508/yr

~$1,241/week

Based on 9.0% p.a. growth (from 5-year trend), 50% CGT discount, 39% MTR

5-Year Hold

Est. value
$3.31M
Capital gain
$1.05M
After discount
$523,326
CGT payable
$204,097

10-Year Hold

Est. value
$5.09M
Capital gain
$2.83M
After discount
$1.41M
CGT payable
$551,546

Investor Quick Summary

Entry cost (stamp duty)

$100,640

After-tax yield

1.71%

Weekly holding cost

$1241/wk

10yr CGT (est.)

$551,546

Estimates based on FY2025 NSW rates at median house price. Assumes 80% LVR, 6.5% interest rate, 39% marginal tax rate ($135K-$190K bracket). Individual circumstances vary. This is general information only and not personal financial advice. Consult your CPA before making investment decisions. Local Knowledge Pty Ltd — Registered Tax Agent.

Demographics

Population

1,850

Median Age

42

Median Income

$145K

per annum

Family Households

68.0%

Professionals

52.0%

University Educated

48.0%

Unemployment

3.2%

Born Overseas

28.0%

Dwelling Mix

Houses: 92%Units: 5%Townhouses: 3%Total: 720

Lifestyle & Community

Walkability25/100
Public Transport3/10
Schools Rating8/10
Safety9/10
Family Friendly9/10
Cafes & Restaurants

2

Parks

4

0
Distance to CBD

40.0 km

Nearest Station: Hornsby Station

Semi-rural lifestyle with equestrian facilities, bushwalking trails, community events, and proximity to quality schools and natural parks. Residents enjoy privacy, space, and strong community networks while maintaining access to Sydney employment centers.

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Data sourced from multiple sources. Last updated 26 March 2026.

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